Friday, February 26, 2021
Wednesday, February 17, 2021
Expect Palantir to dip further
Shares of Palantir dropped about 11% in Tuesday's trading session after the company posted an unexpected loss in its Q4 2020 quarterly report. This is the stock’s worst performance since December 2nd. The stock has slid by as much as 12% in the last week.
The data analytics company reported a per-share loss of 8 cents, though revenue of $322 million topped analyst expectations of $300.7 million. Palantir said it closed 21 deals worth at least $5 million in total contract value during the three months ended Dec. 31. Palantir said it expects to earn $4 billion in revenue in 2025.
The tight-lipped data analytics company debuted through a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange in September with much fanfare as investors were understandably excited about the company's prospects. Shares of the company have performed remarkably well during its short time as a public company, rallying by as much as 176% since its market debut.
However, at this point, it would be natural to question whether the share price has gotten ahead of the business projections.
Trading above its valuation
The company expects to generate $1.07 billion to $1.072 bn in revenue in 2020. Assuming that forecast bears out, the market is currently valuing the company at about 45 times sales. This makes the company seem overvalued, especially when compared with IT-focused government contractors such as Booz Allen Hamilton, ManTech International, and Leidos Holdings.
Government-centered business
Secondly, Palantir has built its business mainly on lucrative government deals for its data analytics software, including ICE. The company has been more willing to work with government agencies than other California-based tech companies. 56% of its revenue in Q3 came from its government segment, which has grown faster than its commercial business. Given the pace of government contracting and its retail offerings' slow rollout, it may take years for Palantir's business to justify its current lofty multiple.
High short interest on the stock.
Thirdly, the stock is one of the heavily shorted stocks in the market. The current short volume ratio stands at about 18%. This means that many investors are not really optimistic about the company and its current valuation.
Conclusion
Palantir has amazing and unique tech and has the potential to grow into a much larger business, but the combination of these factors further conscript the price action of the stock. Based on this, we expect Palantir shares to fall further, or at least trade within a narrow range. The litmus test will be the company's Q1 2021 report. If the company is unable to beat analysts’ expectations. We may expect its prices to crater.
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Tuesday, February 9, 2021
Army sets sights on advanced manufacturing of eyepieces
This is likely eMagin's Prism Optic
https://twitter.com/usarmy_devcom/status/1359170190349651975
See previous -
https://www.reddit.com/r/eMaginCorp/comments/epkcl5/fy2020_mantech_oled_direct_patterning_fws/
Current eMagin WF05 Prism Optic - https://www.emagin.com/images/products/svga/datasheets/1000874_Rev_A_WFO5_Prism_Optic_Specs.pdf
Monday, February 8, 2021
Is a Strategic Investment in eMagin by Intel imminent?
12/2016 ManTech -
eMagin - Established capability of on-shore foundry for advanced backplane wafers for OLED deposition
page 22 - https://www.dodmantech.com/JDMTP/Files/2016_ManTech_Brochure.pdf
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1/5/2018 eMagin US based chipmaker PR -
Separately, the Company announced an agreement with a U.S.-based chipmaker to support scaling of mass production for the consumer AR and VR markets*. This agreement will provide supply chain development assistance for eMagin to enable prototype and mass production of OLED microdisplays. As part of this agreement, eMagin’s partner will provide raw materials sourcing support necessary for scaling to mass production while helping the Company meet the cost requirements of high volume consumer segment original equipment manufacturers (“OEMs”).*
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5/2018 - SID Display Week 2018 Session 40
eMagin Chair w/ Intel presenting -
OLED AR/VR OLEDs ; Artificial Intelligence and Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality
Wednesday, May 23 / 03:30 PM - 04:50 PM / Room 502B
Chair: Tariq Ali, EMagin Corporation***,*** Hopewell Junction, NY US
Co-Chair: Jang Hyuk Kwon, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, South Korea
40.1 - Invited Paper: Next Generation Virtual Reality Displays: Challenges and Opportunities (3:30 PM - 3:50 PM)
Kunjal Parikh, Jim Zhuang, Kim Pallister Intel Corp. Santa Clara CA US
Jun Jiang, Marshall Smith Intel Santa Clara CA US
High ppi compact form factor requirement is being described using micro-display as key enabler.The trade-off between FOV, size and scalability to meet price targets will be discussed. Overview of system impact using novel display design with Intel’s key technologies will be presented to give holistic view about product vision.
Packed crowd -
https://twitter.com/LEXOS_lab/status/999424459898470401
Atendee SilkyZen states "Intel is going to be the production partner for eMagin" -
SilkyZen
Well, really surprised that after the Intel presentation this didn't move much more, really strange.
At about 3:30pm PT yesterday the Intel guy opened the OLED in AR/VR session with the comment along the lines that they see OLED microdisplays as the future display engine tech for AR/VR, followed by "here is an example from our technology partner Emagin", either I misheard or Intel is going to be the production partner for Emagin.
SilkyZen
the OLED AR/VR session at the SID display week.....
http://aceofsp.blogspot.com/2018/06/and-we-have-contemporaneous_19.html
Slide presentation w/eMagin on slide #7 (also note Metalenz on slide 10)
https://imgur.com/6mJn2RZ Micro-OLED Revolutionizes VR - eMagin
https://imgur.com/uxT5DPB Visual Acuity Matters
https://imgur.com/H7mhtO8 Key Challenges - Size & FOV
https://imgur.com/jF32BfD Optics - Key to Disruption - Metalenz
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1/28/2021 Intel Divests from Vuzix giving them $67m in capital to reinvest -
Vuzix Co. (NASDAQ:VUZI) major shareholder Corp Intel sold 4,962,600 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Thursday, January 28th. The stock was sold at an average price of $11.51, for a total value of $57,119,526.00.
On January 28, 2021, the Purchaser converted all of its shares of Series A Preferred Stock into 4,962,600 shares of Common Stock. The shares of Series A Preferred were retired and cannot be reissued. On the same date, the Company and the Purchaser entered into a Dividend Settlement Agreement pursuant to which the Purchaser agreed to accept $10,000,000 in cash in full payment of all accrued Series A Preferred Stock dividends in the approximate amount of $10,800,000.
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1463972/000110465921009458/tm214710-2_8k.htm
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1/28/2021 Intel publishes patent app for metalens
DISPLAY DEVICE HAVING INTEGRATED METAMATERIAL LENS
- The augmented reality device of claim 1, wherein the emissive display element comprises one of a light emitting diode, an organic light emitting diode, or a vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser.
[0002] Augmented reality device technology, including augmented reality headsets and the like, is an area of emerging interest. For such devices, it may be desirable to have a display device that provides red-green-blue (RGB) colors (e.g., full color) in a compact package with high brightness, collimated light, high contrast, low power, and low manufacturing costs to provide high quality products for users.
[0033] As discussed, FIG. 2A illustrates an augmented reality system implementing a micro-display with an integrated metamaterial lens
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2/4/2021 Intel Invests in Metalenz -
Metalenz made its plans public today and announced $10 million in investment from Intel Capital, 3M Ventures, Applied Ventures, and TDK Ventures, among others.
https://otd.harvard.edu/news/harvards-metalens-technology-enters-commercial-development
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1/27 - 2/5/2021 eMagin Majority Shareholder Stillwater reduces ownership below 10% of outstanding common .
Filing 1/27/2021 -
Filing 2/5/2021 -
400565 + 1283501 + 4250000 + 783325 = 6,717,391 common shares still owned
6,717,391 / 67.5m outstanding
= 9.95 % ownership
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1/28/2021 eMagin Majority Shareholder Stillwater seeks valuation of outstanding Preferred Shares
The Series B Preferred Stock, when issued, was convertible into Common Stock at a conversion price of $0.75 per Share (the “Original Conversion Price”). Based on information disclosed in the Issuer’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 12, 2020, there were 67,499,602 Shares deemed issued and outstanding as of October 31, 2020 and 7,545,333 shares of Common Stock issuable upon the conversion of the Series B Preferred Stock. The Shares and ownership reported in this Amendment No. 18 reflect the Original Conversion Price; however, Stillwater and Ginola are currently reviewing all sales and issuances by the Issuer. Such review could result in a lower conversion price resulting in additional shares of Common Stock issuable pursuant to the Conversion of the Series B Preferred Stock. Stillwater and Ginola believe the conversion ratio is not greater than $0.50, due to the Issuer’s offering of Common Stock to an institutional investor at $0.50 per share on April 11, 2019, as reported in the Issuer’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on April 12, 2019. In addition, on January 27, 2021 the Issuer communicated to Stillwater that the conversion price is likely less than $0.50, due to certain sales of Common Stock at lower prices under the equity program created pursuant to the At The Market Offering Agreement dated November 22, 2019, as amended, by and between eMagin Corporation and H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC. Stillwater and Ginola have requested clarification from the Issuer regarding the applicable conversion price for the Series B Preferred but have not received any further information as of the time of filing this report.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046995/000090571821000096/emagincorp_sc13da18jan252021.htm
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Intel clearly has eMagin in its sights as evidenced by the SID Display Week 2018 Session 40 presentation with (eMagin) micro OLED as a "key enabler" to AR/VR . Intel's interest also extends to complementary Optics company Metalenz .
The capital structures look to be rearranging with Intel's divestment of Vuzix and subsequent investment in Metalenz . At the same time eMagin's Majority Shareholder adjusted their investment in eMagin to less than 10% of outstanding common shares and seeks clarification of Preferred valuation .